Africa's Young Population

Why Africa's fast-growing, youthful population could be a huge opportunity or a serious challenge, depending on whether enough jobs are created.

Africa is the youngest continent. The median age in sub-Saharan Africa is under 20, compared with around 40 in Europe and the United States. According to United Nations projections, Africa’s population could reach around 2.5 billion by 2050, and roughly one in four people on Earth may be African by then.

The demographic dividend

When fertility rates fall, a country can enjoy a period in which the share of working-age people is high and the share of dependent children and elderly people is low. This lowers the dependency ratio and can boost growth, as more people work and save. Economists call this the demographic dividend. East Asian economies such as South Korea benefited greatly from it.

Africa’s situation

In many African countries, fertility rates remain high, though they are falling. This means the working-age population is growing rapidly. Each year, millions of young Africans enter the job market.

The key question is whether economies can create enough productive jobs. If they can, Africa’s young workforce could power decades of growth. If not, large numbers of young people may face unemployment or low-paid informal work, which could lead to frustration, migration pressure and instability.

The job-creation challenge

Suppose a country's working-age population grows by 3 percent a year. To keep the employment rate steady, the number of jobs must also grow by 3 percent a year. If the economy creates jobs at only 1.5 percent a year, a growing share of young people will be left without work, even while the economy grows.

What helps

Economists point to several priorities:

Education and skills, including quality basic schooling and vocational training.
Health, including maternal and child health, which also tends to lower fertility over time.
Girls’ education, strongly linked to later marriage and smaller families.
Labour-intensive industries, such as manufacturing, agro-processing and tourism.
Digital and service jobs, which some African countries are developing.

A global matter

As populations age in Europe, East Asia and elsewhere, Africa’s young workforce will become increasingly important to the world economy, as workers, consumers and innovators.

Thinking a large young population automatically brings growth

A demographic dividend is an opportunity, not a guarantee. It requires falling fertility, investment in education and health, and economies that create productive jobs. Without these, a young population can mean more unemployment rather than more growth.

Key takeaways

The median age in sub-Saharan Africa is under 20.
Africa's population could reach around 2.5 billion by 2050.
A demographic dividend is possible if fertility falls and jobs are created.
Education, health, girls' schooling and labour-intensive industries help realise the dividend.