The Coming Cooling Boom

Why demand for air conditioning in India is set to soar as incomes and temperatures rise, and what this means for electricity, emissions and wellbeing.

India is one of the hottest large countries, and heatwaves are getting more intense. Yet only a small share of Indian households, often estimated at under one in ten, own an air conditioner.

Why demand will rise

Rising incomes let more families afford ACs.
Urbanisation: cities are hotter and have more concrete.
Climate change: more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Falling prices of ACs over time.

The International Energy Agency has projected that India’s AC stock could grow manyfold by 2050, making India one of the world’s largest sources of cooling demand.

Why it matters

Electricity: cooling could become one of the biggest drivers of electricity demand, especially at peak times.
Emissions: more electricity from coal and more refrigerant leaks.
Health and productivity: cooling protects people from heat stress.
Inequality: the poor are least able to afford cooling but most exposed to heat.

The challenge

India must provide cooling for all while limiting emissions and strain on the grid. Solutions include:

More efficient ACs.
Passive cooling through building design.
Clean electricity.
Better refrigerants.

The economics

Cooling is both a need and an externality problem: individual ACs heat outdoor air and add emissions, affecting others.

The first AC

A family in Nagpur buys its first AC as temperatures exceed 45 degrees. Across millions of households, such purchases push up summer electricity demand and power plant construction.

Thinking cooling is a luxury

In a warming climate, cooling is increasingly essential for health and productivity.

Key takeaways

Only a small share of Indian households own ACs.
Rising incomes, urbanisation and heat will drive a cooling boom.
Cooling will be a major driver of electricity demand and emissions.
India must balance cooling for all with climate and grid limits.