Disasters, Pandemics & Economic Recovery
Early Warning Systems
How warnings of storms, floods and tsunamis save lives and money, why they must reach everyone, and the global push to extend them.
A few hours of warning can mean the difference between life and death. An early warning system detects a coming hazard, forecasts its effects, and alerts people in time to act.
The four parts
The United Nations describes effective warning systems as having four parts:
- Risk knowledge: understanding which hazards threaten which places and people.
- Detection and forecasting: monitoring weather, rivers, earthquakes and oceans.
- Warning communication: getting clear messages to everyone at risk.
- Preparedness to respond: people knowing what to do and where to go.
A failure in any part can make the whole system fail.
The economic case
The Global Commission on Adaptation reported in 2019 that giving just 24 hours’ notice of a coming storm or heatwave can cut the resulting damage by 30 percent. It found that investing in early warning systems had among the highest returns of any climate adaptation measure.
The 2004 tsunami
In December 2004, an earthquake off Indonesia triggered a tsunami that killed around 230,000 people across countries around the Indian Ocean. There was no tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean at the time. Many coastal communities had no warning at all. Afterwards, countries built the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System, with India operating a major warning centre in Hyderabad.
A forecast is only useful if it reaches people. A fishing village might be warned by radio, loudspeakers, text messages, sirens and community volunteers going door to door. Blind residents need audio alerts, deaf residents need visual or text alerts, and older people may need help to evacuate. Getting warnings to every person is called solving the last mile.
Early warnings for all
In 2022, the UN Secretary-General launched an initiative called Early Warnings for All, aiming for every person on Earth to be protected by early warning systems by the end of 2027. At its launch, the UN said about half of countries lacked adequate multi-hazard early warning systems, with the gaps largest in the least developed countries and small island states.
Accurate forecasts are only one part. Warnings must reach everyone in formats they can understand and use, and people must know how to respond and have somewhere safe to go. Many disasters with good forecasts still cause many deaths because the last mile failed.
- Early warning systems combine risk knowledge, forecasting, communication and preparedness.
- 24 hours' warning can cut storm and heatwave damage by around 30 percent.
- The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a regional warning system.
- Warnings must reach everyone, including disabled people, in accessible formats.
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