Economic History
The Black Death and the Economy
How the plague of the 14th century killed a huge share of Europe's population, raised wages for survivors and reshaped economic institutions.
Between 1347 and 1351, a plague known as the Black Death swept across Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. It killed an estimated one-third to one-half of Europe’s population. Beyond the human tragedy, it had profound economic effects.
A sudden labour shortage
With so many people dead, land was plentiful but workers were scarce. Basic economics predicts that when labour becomes scarce, wages rise. That is what happened:
- Real wages for labourers and craftsmen rose substantially in the decades after the plague.
- Land rents fell, since there were fewer people to farm the land.
- Survivors could demand better terms.
Resistance from elites
Landowners tried to keep wages down. In England, the Ordinance of Labourers of 1349 and the Statute of Labourers of 1351 tried to cap wages at pre-plague levels and restrict workers’ movement. These laws were widely evaded, and tensions contributed to the Peasants’ Revolt of 1381.
Weakening serfdom
In Western Europe, the labour shortage helped weaken serfdom, the system tying peasants to their lords’ land. Peasants could move to better opportunities, and lords had to offer better terms.
In parts of Eastern Europe, the opposite happened: lords tightened control over peasants, a divergence some historians link to later differences in development.
Long-term effects
Some economists, such as Nico Voigtländer and Hans-Joachim Voth, argue that higher wages after the plague increased demand for manufactured goods and urban living, and that repeated plagues and wars kept European incomes higher, helping set the stage for later growth.
Parallels today
The Black Death shows how demographic shocks affect labour markets. Some economists noted a milder version during the COVID-19 pandemic, when labour shortages in some sectors pushed up wages.
Before the plague, a ploughman in England worked for low wages and had few options. After the plague, with half the village gone, several landowners competed for his work. He moved to the one offering the best pay and food, despite laws trying to stop him.
The Black Death was catastrophic, but survivors, especially workers, often gained higher wages because labour became scarce.
- The Black Death killed one-third to one-half of Europe's population.
- Labour shortages raised real wages and lowered land rents.
- Laws to cap wages largely failed and fuelled unrest.
- Serfdom weakened in Western Europe but tightened in parts of Eastern Europe.
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