Why Didn't We Get the 15-Hour Week?

Why Keynes predicted people would work only 15 hours a week by 2030, why that hasn't happened, and what it tells us about wants and work.

In 1930, economist John Maynard Keynes wrote “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren”.

The prediction

Keynes predicted that by 2030, productivity growth would make people so rich they’d work only around 15 hours a week.

What happened

Keynes was right about productivity: rich countries became several times richer.
But working hours fell much less than he expected. Many people still work 35 to 50 hours a week.

Why

Wants grew: people chose more goods and services instead of more leisure.
Relative status: people compare themselves with others.
Work satisfaction: some people enjoy their work.
Inequality: gains went unequally, so many can’t afford to work less.
Job structures: many jobs don’t allow part-time options.

Hours did fall

Average annual hours in rich countries fell substantially over the 20th century. The weekend and paid holidays became normal.

Four-day week

Recent trials of a four-day week in the UK and elsewhere reported that many companies maintained productivity, reviving Keynes’s idea.

The richer grandchild

A grandfather worked 60 hours a week in a 1930s factory. His grandson earns much more per hour but still works 45 hours, choosing a bigger home and more gadgets over more leisure.

Thinking productivity gains automatically mean less work

People often choose more consumption instead of more leisure.

Key takeaways

Keynes predicted a 15-hour week by 2030.
Productivity grew, but hours fell less than predicted.
Growing wants, status and inequality explain why.
Four-day week trials revived the debate.