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Ethiopia's Economy

Ethiopia's Economy: Recap

A recap of Ethiopia's state-led growth, its crises and reforms, and lessons for other developing countries.

Ethiopia shows the promise and limits of state-led growth.

Module recap

  • Over 120 million people, fast growth, still poor.
  • Coffee is a key export.
  • The developmental state invested heavily.
  • Industrial parks disappointed.
  • Ethiopian Airlines is a success.
  • GERD provides power but causes disputes.
  • The Tigray war was devastating.
  • Ethiopia defaulted in 2023.
  • The birr was floated in 2024.
  • Telecoms and banking are opening.
  • Farming and safety nets matter.

Lessons

  • Investment must earn foreign currency.
  • Peace is a precondition for growth.
The two paths

Ethiopia's airline soared while its debt piled up, showing both sides of state-led growth.

Thinking one model fits all

State-led growth has strengths and limits.

Key takeaways
  • Ethiopia grew fast through public investment.
  • Debt and conflict caused crises.
  • Reforms are opening the economy.
  • Peace and exports are key.
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