The Monsoon Economy
El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole
How changes in Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures influence the Indian monsoon, and why El Niño years often bring weaker rains and higher food prices.
The Indian monsoon is influenced by ocean conditions thousands of kilometres away.
El Niño
El Niño occurs when the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. It shifts rainfall patterns around the world. In India, El Niño years are often associated with weaker monsoons and droughts.
Many of India’s worst droughts, such as in 2002, 2009 and 2015, occurred during El Niño years. But the link isn’t perfect: some El Niño years have had near-normal rain.
La Niña
La Niña is the opposite: cooler-than-usual Pacific waters. It often brings stronger monsoons to India, though sometimes with floods.
Together, El Niño and La Niña are called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
The Indian Ocean Dipole
The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, compares sea temperatures in the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
- A positive IOD (warmer west) tends to support the Indian monsoon and can offset El Niño’s negative effects.
- A negative IOD can weaken it.
In 2019, a strong positive IOD contributed to abundant monsoon rain.
Economic effects of El Niño
- Lower farm output, especially rice, pulses and oilseeds.
- Higher food inflation.
- Lower rural incomes and demand.
- Government responses: stocking food, restricting exports and planning drought relief. In 2023, El Niño concerns contributed to India’s restrictions on rice exports.
Global effects
El Niño also affects rainfall in Australia, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Americas, influencing global prices of commodities like palm oil, sugar, coffee and cocoa.
Planning ahead
Because El Niño can be predicted months ahead, governments and farmers can prepare: drought-tolerant crops, water conservation, contingency seed plans and food stock management.
In a year when forecasters warn of El Niño, the government builds up rice and wheat stocks, prepares contingency crop plans for rainfed districts and watches food prices closely. Some farmers switch to shorter-duration, drought-tolerant varieties.
El Niño raises the risk of a weak monsoon, but other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, can offset it.
- El Niño is unusual warming of the Pacific, often linked to weaker Indian monsoons.
- La Niña usually brings stronger monsoons.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can support the monsoon.
- El Niño raises risks of lower farm output and higher food inflation.
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