When Dal Prices Spike

Why pulse prices can double in a short time, as in the 2015-16 tur dal crisis, and how weather, hoarding and imports interact.

Pulse prices can swing sharply.

The 2015-16 crisis

After two drought years, tur dal retail prices crossed 200 rupees per kg in some cities in late 2015, roughly double earlier levels. It became a major political issue.

Why prices spike

Weather: most pulses are rain-fed.
Inelastic demand: people keep buying dal even when prices rise, so small supply shortfalls cause big price jumps.
Limited global supply: few countries grow tur and urad, so imports can’t quickly fill gaps.
Hoarding by traders expecting higher prices.

Government responses

Stock limits on traders.
Import deals with countries like Mozambique and Myanmar.
Buffer stocks.
Duty-free imports of some pulses.

Price crashes

After high prices, farmers plant more. In 2016-17, a bumper crop caused prices to crash below MSP, hurting farmers, an example of the boom-bust cycle.

Food inflation

Pulses contribute significantly to food inflation, influencing RBI policy.

The 200-rupee dal

In late 2015, a family that normally bought 2 kg of tur dal a month cut back to 1 kg and ate more cheaper pulses as prices doubled.

Thinking imports can instantly fix dal shortages

Few countries grow some pulses, so global supply is limited.

Key takeaways

Tur dal prices crossed 200 rupees per kg in late 2015.
Weather, inelastic demand and limited global supply cause spikes.
Stock limits, imports and buffers are responses.
High prices led to a bumper crop and price crash in 2016-17.