Transition Economies: Russia, Eastern Europe & Central Asia
Russia Under Sanctions Since 2022
The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, how Russia's economy adapted, and the debate over their effectiveness.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries imposed the most extensive sanctions ever applied to a major economy.
The main measures
- Frozen reserves: around 300 billion dollars of the Russian central bank’s foreign reserves held in Western countries were immobilised.
- Banking restrictions: major Russian banks were cut off from the SWIFT international messaging system and barred from Western financial markets.
- Export controls on technology, including chips and aircraft parts.
- Energy measures: the EU banned most Russian oil imports by sea from late 2022 and 2023, and the G7 imposed a price cap of 60 dollars a barrel on Russian crude, banning Western services like shipping insurance for oil sold above the cap.
- Companies leaving: hundreds of Western companies exited or suspended operations in Russia.
Russia’s adaptation
Early predictions of a deep collapse proved wrong. In 2022, Russia’s economy shrank only modestly and then grew in 2023 and 2024. Reasons included:
- High energy prices in 2022.
- Redirecting exports to China, India and Türkiye. India became one of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil, often at discounts.
- A “shadow fleet” of tankers to carry oil outside Western services.
- Capital controls and interest rate hikes that stabilised the rouble.
- Massive military spending, which boosted industrial output and employment.
Hidden costs
Economists note significant costs beneath the headline growth: high inflation, labour shortages as workers joined the military or emigrated, high interest rates reaching over 20 percent, loss of Western technology and a shift of resources toward war production rather than long-term development. Russia’s growth slowed markedly in 2025.
The G7 price cap did not ban Russian oil. Instead, Western firms could only provide shipping, insurance and finance for Russian oil sold at or below 60 dollars a barrel. The aim was to keep Russian oil flowing, to avoid a global price spike, while cutting Russia's revenue. Russia responded by building a fleet of older tankers using non-Western insurance, reducing the cap's effect.
Sanctions rarely cause instant collapse. Their effects often accumulate over years through reduced technology, investment and productivity. Judging effectiveness requires looking at long-term costs, not just short-term growth figures.
- Western sanctions after 2022 froze around 300 billion dollars of Russian reserves and cut banks from SWIFT.
- The EU banned most Russian oil imports, and the G7 set a 60-dollar price cap.
- Russia adapted by redirecting exports to China and India and using a shadow fleet.
- War spending boosted growth, but inflation, labour shortages and high rates imposed costs.
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