Trade Surpluses and US Tariffs

Why Vietnam runs a large trade surplus with the United States, how the 2025 US tariffs threatened its export model, and how Vietnam negotiated.

Vietnam sells far more to the US than it buys.

The surplus

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US grew to over 100 billion dollars a year, among the largest of any country.

2025 tariffs

In April 2025, the US announced a 46 percent tariff on Vietnamese goods under its “reciprocal” tariffs.
Vietnam quickly negotiated, offering to buy more US goods like aircraft and farm products.
In July 2025, the two sides agreed on a lower tariff of around 20 percent, with higher tariffs of 40 percent on goods deemed transhipped.

Why Vietnam is exposed

The US is its largest export market.
Many factories exist to export to the US.

Responses

Diversifying markets.
Stricter checks on origin of goods.
Buying more US products.

Broader lesson

Export-led growth depends on access to big markets, which can change with politics.

The factory manager

A furniture factory in Binh Duong that exports mostly to the US halts new orders during tariff uncertainty, then resumes once the lower rate is agreed.

Thinking trade surpluses have no risks

Large surpluses can attract tariffs and political pressure.

Key takeaways

Vietnam's US trade surplus exceeds 100 billion dollars a year.
The US announced 46 percent tariffs in April 2025.
A deal set around 20 percent, with 40 percent for transhipment.
Export dependence on one market is a risk.